Wednesday, September 28, 2011
What is more important. Handicapping or wagering?
This may be the easiest question I have ever answered about playing the greyhounds. Wagering is by far the most important thing that will affect your profit and ROI.
If I were in a contest that required me to place wagers on handicappers and who would do best over time, I would bet all my money on the modest handicapper with outstanding wagering skills over the worlds best handicapper with poor wagering skills. How important is wagering? I'll give you a real life example from today. I had a member of my pro greyhound training site ,
www.greyhoundtracktips.com , ask me about races to play today. I told him I would give him my best race of the day but he should apply the things he had learned so far to play it the best he could. At the end of the day we would compare notes on how he played it, how I played it and make adjustments to his process as needed.
The race was Palm Beach Matinee Race 3 (todays date 9/22/11)
We just talked a few minutes ago and here is how he played the race:
$5 exacta 1/28
He hit the race. His total wager cost $46 (in our first conversation based on his bankroll I advised him to shoot for an investment of around $50 on the race). His return was $100.10 for a profit of $54.10
Now that is very respectable. He made OVER 100% ROI on this race. In our discussion I first congratulated him on picking it right and getting a very respectable return on his wager. And then I shared my wager.
The reason I thought writing about this today is because we had the exact same dogs narrowed down for our play. So his picks were exactly like mine. The only difference was how we wagered it. Here is my wager
$10 Exacta 1/28
My total wager was $50 exactly. My return was $180.50 for a $130.50 profit. For the same investment I made nearly triple the profit and ROI for my wager.
Now I'm not saying I would always wager better than him on an individual race. There would be some races I might actually miss or only hit small on a single line of wagering that he would get paid and I wouldn't or get very little. But what I did do, and what I always try to do is MAXIMIZE my return when I am RIGHT!
If I could ask you one question that might help improve your returns it would be this. Do you ever make a straight trifecta wager? If not you should. You need to handicap the race the best you can and then make a wager that reflects you being right. Why? A straight tri is only $2. And you won't be exactly right a lot of the time. But when you are right, your ROI on that single line will be massive compared to your $12 line where you hit it for a $1 payoff. So spread your wagers and make sure at least ONE of your wagers will reward you when you are EXACTLY right!